The rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has expanded from subtle differences into a pronounced rivalry with significant geopolitical implications. This story, which unfolds primarily in the Horn of Africa, can be traced back to their proxy war in southern Yemen, illustrating the depth and complexity of their strained relationship.
Recent attempts to reconcile their differences hint at a possible compromise; however, underlying tensions fueled by divergent strategic visions persist and may take time to resolve. As Cameron Hudson, a former US government official, explains, “There are a great many interests that both countries share in the region. The question is whether they can focus on those shared interests to create a more cooperative and coordinated approach to the region, especially regarding security and political stability.” This ongoing uncertainty complicates the potential for lasting collaboration.
The Horn of Africa: A New Battleground
In the Horn of Africa, the rivalry stems from fundamental differences in how each nation perceives regional security and influence. The UAE has established deep ties, leveraging port investments and partnerships with sub-state actors across countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Libya. Notably, the Emirati engagement in Berbera port in Somaliland and Bosaso in Puntland underscores its commitment to embedding itself in the region’s infrastructure.
Investment by Dubai Ports World in 2016, amounting to around $442 million for port developments, emphasizes the significance of these strategic maritime corridors. Moreover, the UAE’s willingness to broker peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018 illustrates its proactive approach to enhancing influence. In Ethiopia, significant investment has been made in agriculture and manufacturing, while Eritrea hosts a UAE military base, further increasing Abu Dhabi’s leverage. Critics argue that these moves give the UAE substantial sway over regional dynamics.
Financial Networks and Brokering Power
Emirati-backed networks, particularly those connecting Libya’s Khalifa Haftar to Somaliland via Ethiopia, have become critical to sustaining Abu Dhabi’s business and commercial endeavours. However, the UAE’s support for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has drawn scrutiny, particularly in light of its dual role safeguarding financial interests while countering perceived Islamist threats. This intricate web of alliances complicates the regional power structure and raises suspicions among other nations.
On the flip side, Riyadh emphasizes state sovereignty and border security, striving to foster strong centralized authorities in the countries of the Horn. This perspective aligns closely with Egypt, as both countries share concerns over maintaining stability in the Red Sea region, affecting their political and economic interests. Although Riyadh’s historical influence in the Horn may lag behind Abu Dhabi’s efforts, its recent push to counteract Emirati ambitions is evident.
Yemen as a Catalyst for Tensions
The ongoing conflict in Yemen has undeniably become a crucial flashpoint in Saudi-Emirati relations. The differing allegiances each country has assumed—Saudi Arabia’s commitment to Yemen’s territorial unity versus the UAE’s backing of the Southern Transitional Council (STC)—has heightened tensions. This discord reached alarming levels in late 2025 when Saudi airstrikes targeted UAE-connected shipments, marking a rare violent confrontation between supposed allies.
As Saudi forces attempted to reclaim control in southern Yemen, calls from Riyadh for Emirati withdrawal from certain alliances and military structures highlighted the fragility of their collaboration. Unless these underlying strategic disparities are addressed, the situation could deteriorate further, with Yemen serving as merely a precursor to a more extensive regional struggle.
Expanding Rivalry: The Horn of Africa and Beyond
The fallout from the Yemeni conflict resonates throughout the Horn of Africa, prompting Saudi Arabia to dismantle Emirati networks that it perceives as threats. This concerted effort includes curbing the UAE’s influence in Sudan and Somalia, where Riyadh views Emirati support for sub-state actors as destabilizing to the fragile security landscape.
Particularly in Somalia, the situation is tense. The UAE has invested significantly in Somaliland and its port facilities, while Saudi Arabia and Egypt back Somalia’s territorial integrity. The clash over Somalia’s sovereign status could exacerbate tensions, eventually drawing in regional powers into a more confrontational stance.
Sudan: A Crucial Test Case
Sudan has crystallized the Gulf rivalry and poses a significant challenge with the escalating civil conflict that erupted in April 2023. Initially, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE aligned in supporting military rule after the 2019 revolution. However, as divisions among Sudanese military leaders deepened, so too did the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
Riyadh’s growing dissatisfaction with the UAE’s backing of the RSF, coupled with its collaboration with Cairo to support the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), has redefined the geopolitical landscape in the region. The complex situation manifested into a de facto alliance between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, aimed at undermining the RSF’s influence and logistical capabilities.
The Wider Geopolitical Implications
In the context of the broader Gulf dynamics, the UAE’s alliance with Ethiopia adds another layer of complexity, especially considering Egypt’s acute concerns regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopia’s burgeoning relationship with Somaliland poses further risks, as Egypt looks to protect its own interests amidst existential threats to water security.
The impacts of these competing interests extend beyond economic considerations; they jeopardize regional stability and peace. If a cohesive Saudi-Egyptian bloc emerges, it could potentially sideline the UAE from critical negotiations in the region. As Hudson articulates, competition over allegiance and political influence has moved far beyond mere economic contracts, pointing toward an escalation in proxy conflicts and possible direct interventions.
The landscape is fraught with uncertainty, and while Saudi Arabia faces challenges in replicating the UAE’s embedded influence due to its entrenched networks, its influence appears to be on the rise. Simultaneously, analysts warn that the continuing rivalry may escalate existing conflicts or even provoke new inter-state wars within the volatile region.
