The Gulf Powers and the Horn of Africa: A New Great Game
Across the Horn of Africa, a “great game”-style contest for influence is intensifying between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). With civil war raging in Sudan, unrest in Ethiopia, and ongoing instability in Somalia, the stakes could not be higher. This competition is not simply about power; it’s a complex interplay of geopolitical interests that significantly impacts the local populations.
The Strategic Importance of the Horn
For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Horn of Africa is more than a geopolitical hotspot; it is a crucial source of raw materials and agricultural products. The region serves as a strategic asset—acting as the gateway to the Red Sea and a platform for both geographic and cultural influence. However, for the residents of the Horn, the competition represents yet another cycle of foreign interference, often at the cost of peace and stability.
Countries, armed factions, and non-state actors are gradually sorting themselves into blocs based on Gulf patronage, leading to violent outcomes. Meanwhile, the Gulf states are not entirely devoid of goodwill; they are also providers of humanitarian aid and conflict mediation. While their self-interested actions often overshadow these benefits, there exists untapped potential for cooperation that could nurture economic and political stability.
The Need for Coordination
To alleviate the negative impacts of their rivalry, coordination among Gulf countries is essential. Such coordination can yield numerous benefits—from enhanced humanitarian aid and investment to creating better forums for conflict negotiation. Furthermore, international powers like the United States would find stability in this critical region advantageous to their strategic objectives.
The Trump administration’s drastic cuts to the U.S. State Department and USAID diminished American interest and understanding of the Horn of Africa. This situation has left regional actors to navigate these turbulent waters without relying heavily on American intervention. Consequently, the responsibility for forging a path toward stability lies with the countries within the Horn and the Gulf states vying for influence.
Historical Context: Intra-Gulf Competition
The rivalry between Middle Eastern and African nations isn’t new; it has unfolded for decades, particularly during the Cold War. In recent years, Gulf states have risen as significant players along the Red Sea. The 2017-2021 Gulf crisis projected these intra-Gulf rivalries onto the Horn, ramping up political and ideological divisions. The Saudi-Emirati coalition often found itself at odds with Qatari and Turkish-backed groups in a zero-sum game for influence.
Although tensions eased somewhat after the al-Ula agreement in January 2021, competition continues, driven by various economic and political aspirations. Key factors contributing to this ongoing rivalry include differing perceptions of threat, particularly concerning Islamist movements, and divergent foreign policy ambitions.
Strategic Interests: The Players
Saudi Arabia: Balancing Domestic and Foreign Policy
Saudi Arabia recognizes the significance of the Horn for its national interests, given its extensive coastline along the Red Sea. The kingdom has prioritized humanitarian aid and mediation efforts but remains focused on its ambitious domestic plans, like the Vision 2030 initiative aimed at socio-economic transformation. This focus limits Riyadh’s capacity to exert influence abroad.
UAE: A Different Approach
On the other hand, the UAE employs a more dynamic strategy. Although it lacks a Red Sea coastline, it has become a crucial external player in the Horn. The Emirates’ “global connectivity agenda” involves establishing trade and economic relationships to support its political and security interests. Its substantial investments in the region have expanded its influence, overshadowing that of Saudi Arabia.
Competition to Influence Regional Conflicts
Ethiopia and Eritrea: A Divided Landscape
The competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has played out notably in the ongoing conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. While the UAE is inclined to support Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia has aligned itself more with Eritrea. This asymmetric relationship heightens tensions and complicates an already fragile political landscape. The relationship dynamics continue to evolve as both Gulf powers deepen ties with respective partners.
Somalia: Opposing Sides of the Political Divide
In Somalia, the Gulf nations find themselves on different sides of political divisions, with the Emirates leaning towards semiautonomous regions like Somaliland while Saudi Arabia supports the federal government in Mogadishu. This dichotomy exacerbates tensions, even as both nations express shared interest in Somalia’s overall stability amid the persistent threat of al-Shabaab.
Sudan: A Humanitarian Crisis and Strategic Resource
Sudan’s devastating civil war epitomizes the complexities of Gulf involvement. As Saudi Arabia and the UAE both engage in mediation efforts, they have also reportedly allied themselves with opposing factions in the conflict. The situation is aggravated by Sudan’s vast natural resource wealth, which fuels external intervention while creating a humanitarian catastrophe.
Djibouti: A Strategic Nexus
Saudi Arabia has focused efforts on building alliances with Djibouti and Eritrea, strategic countries that serve as gateways to regional influence. In contrast, the UAE’s relationship with Djibouti has soured due to disputes over port operations. Djibouti, critical for Ethiopia’s access to international waters, remains central to Saudi ambitions to establish a foothold in the region.
The Path Forward: Cooperation for Stability
As the competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE escalates, it heightens the risk of miscalculation and conflict. Improving bilateral dialogue and leveraging existing multilateral frameworks could help temper these tensions. The reactivation of the Red Sea Council and enhanced cooperation between the Gulf states could significantly enhance regional stability and security.
In summary, while both Saudi Arabia and the UAE seek to increase their influence in the Horn of Africa, the complexities of local dynamics and the historical context of their competition necessitate a coordinated approach. Greater dialogue and cooperation could yield benefits not only for the Gulf states but also for the Horn of Africa, whose people continue to suffer the repercussions of geopolitical gamesmanship.
