How the War in Gaza Diminished Dreams of Political Reform in Egypt

In early 2023, the political atmosphere in Egypt hinted at a possible thawing of the tightly controlled public sphere. Economic turmoil forced President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to consider a series of reforms. With the backdrop of rising inflation and an urgent need for foreign investment, cautious optimism arose around the prospect of political participation in the upcoming 2023 presidential and the August 2025 parliamentary elections. However, the landscape shifted dramatically following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.

Shift from Reform to National Security

The outbreak of war in Gaza expanded to involve Hezbollah and Iran, effectively shifting national discourse from potential political reform to urgent national security concerns. The visceral images broadcast internationally from Gaza intensified public anxiety in Egypt, leading to a rapid consolidation of power within al-Sisi’s regime. By the end of 2023, he secured a third term without meaningful electoral contention, under the guise of national unity amid rising tensions.

The ramifications of the October 7 events not only devastated the Gaza Strip but also reverberated through Egypt’s economy and political dynamics. The dual crises of regional conflict and domestic governance deepened ideological rifts among intellectuals and opposition figures, further discrediting their narratives and bolstering conspiracy theories about Western and U.S. interests in the region.

Displacement Overshadows Political Reform

Egypt faced a significant economic crisis from 2022 into early 2023. Hyperinflation soared to over 32% by March 2023, while foreign debt surpassed $160 billion. These dire economic conditions presented a narrow opportunity for dialogue on political and economic reforms. In response, al-Sisi initiated a “National Dialogue” in May 2023 to mitigate discontent and engage with dissenting voices, albeit excluding the Muslim Brotherhood.

The dialogue’s optimistic promise raised expectations that the upcoming elections could yield greater participation from secular groups and credible challenges to al-Sisi’s presidency. However, the onset of the Gaza war abruptly altered this narrative. The discussions around political reform faded into the background, overshadowed by debates focused on safeguarding Egyptian borders and national integrity.

Polarization Among Intellectuals

Since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, Egypt’s intellectuals have been sharply divided—on grounds of ideology, experience, and visions for the country. The war in Gaza has reignited these divisions, leading to public rifts within the intellectual community. With significant figures on both sides of the divide voicing vehemently opposing views regarding Hamas and its strategies against Israel, debates quickly escalated into personal accusations and deepened mistrust.

Islamists and leftists have voiced support for Hamas, framing it as a legitimate resistance while condemning U.S. and Israeli actions. In stark contrast, nationalists and liberals criticized Hamas for its role in derailing potential peace processes. This burgeoning polarization further marginalized intellectual discourse, weakening the already fragmented opposition to al-Sisi.

Discrediting Democracy and Embracing Conspiracy Theories

The Gaza war has eroded the fabric of the liberal democratic narratives that many Egyptian intellectuals had championed. With the international community seemingly impotent in halting the suffering in Gaza, skepticism toward Western notions of democracy deepened. Many Egyptians perceived these ideals as tools merely serving Western political interests, rather than genuine paths toward development and peace.

The notion of Palestinian displacement to Egypt—once relegated to the realm of conspiracy theory—began to gain traction as geopolitics shifted. Declarations from Israeli and U.S. officials about relocating Palestinians echoed an uneasy realization of an ever-evolving and troubling reality.

Elevating Al-Sisi’s Image Amidst Security Concerns

The war has inadvertently bolstered public faith in the military and al-Sisi, who has strategically positioned himself as a protector of Egypt’s sovereign interests. Despite his strengthened public image, anxiety about security remains a critical concern for al-Sisi. The Palestinian cause historically remains potent against the backdrop of Egyptian authority, and voices within the Muslim Brotherhood, although suppressed, continue to resonate with sectors of the public, particularly the youth.

As discontent simmers among citizens and socio-political challenges remain omnipresent, al-Sisi’s grip on power appears fortified in the short term, but the looming specter of societal unrest and ideological tensions persists. The influence of narratives expressing solidarity with Hamas represents a challenge to the current regime, revealing cracks in its façade that could re-emerge in future political storms.

Egypt’s Political Future: A Complex Crossroad

In the wake of the Gaza conflict, Egypt appears to be retreating further into political stagnation. The surge of nationalism, combined with an increasingly fragmented opposition, complicates any path toward genuine reform. As the country prepares for upcoming elections, the prevailing dynamics offer a sobering reminder of the fragile balance between security, public opinion, and the aspirations for political representation that had begun to take root merely months prior.

The ongoing situation leaves many wondering whether Egypt will navigate this tumultuous landscape without succumbing to further authoritarianism or if it will find fertile ground for reform amidst renewed challenges.

Amr Salah Mohamed is a scholar and lecturer at the Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution, specializing in conflicts in the Middle East and Egyptian politics.