By Abdi Jama
The Horn of Africa is entering a period of heightened instability. Political fragmentation, disrupted Red Sea shipping routes, and intensifying geopolitical competition are forcing global powers to rethink long-held assumptions about regional security.
Recent remarks by Donald Trump criticizing Somalia’s instability, along with the U.S.-brokered Rwanda-DR Congo peace agreement, show that long-running conflicts can shift when incentives align.
Against this backdrop, attention is returning to an often-overlooked but increasingly important actor: Somaliland. Unrecognised internationally yet strikingly stable, Somaliland presents a political question dating back to 1960 — one that is becoming more urgent and more solvable as regional dynamics evolve.
A Long-Frozen Issue Returns
Somaliland declared independence from the UK on 26 June 1960 and gained international recognition before voluntarily joining Somalia days later. That union collapsed decades ago, and Somaliland reasserted its sovereignty in 1991, building functioning institutions largely without external support.
Previously overshadowed by geopolitical caution, Somaliland’s status is now back in focus. Insecurity along the Gulf of Aden, political fragility in Somalia, and disruptions to maritime routes have made ambiguity costly. With global powers reassessing strategies across the Red Sea, Somaliland’s political status is increasingly central to calculations of regional stability.
A Stable Outlier
Unlike much of the region, Somaliland has maintained relative peace, regular elections, and effective governance for over three decades. Its hybrid system blending traditional authority with modern institutions ensures predictability rare in the Horn of Africa. Government ministries function, contracts are respected, and political transitions occur without widespread unrest, offering investors a unique measure of security.
Strategic Trade and Infrastructure
Situated along one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, Somaliland’s geography is a key asset. Modernisation of Berbera Port and development of the Berbera–Ethiopia corridor are creating a new regional logistics hub, giving Ethiopia an alternative maritime outlet to support a market of 120 million people. For companies navigating Red Sea disruptions, Somaliland’s port and free zone present commercially viable options.
Its airspace, long administered from Mogadishu under UN oversight, is also becoming strategically significant. As regional aviation grows, clarity over airspace governance could enhance safety, reduce routing complexity, and unlock logistics opportunities tied to Berbera’s emerging role.
Economic Potential and Renewable Energy
Somaliland’s underexplored resources include hydrocarbons, gypsum, limestone, manganese, rare-earth elements, and artisanal gold deposits. Its solar and wind potential makes it ideal for renewable energy projects, from solar farms to industrial mini-grids. The private sector, backed by diaspora investment, drives growth in telecoms, logistics, retail, and digital finance, offering foreign investors capable local partners and fewer administrative hurdles than many regional peers.
A Time for Strategic Reassessment
Trump’s recent remarks on Somalia underscore the risks associated with instability, highlighting Somaliland’s appeal as a stable partner for policymakers and investors. As global powers rethink maritime security, aviation safety, and supply-chain resilience, Somaliland is emerging as a potential anchor of stability. Addressing its long-standing political question does not require disruption — only realistic engagement with three decades of de facto statehood.
For investors and policymakers alike, Somaliland offers a rare opportunity: a frontier market with real stability, strategic relevance, and significant growth potential.
Abdi Jama is a commentator on the Horn of Africa political landscape.
