The Long Road to Elections in Libya
Background and Current Landscape
After over a decade of civil war and instability, Libya was set to hold its first-ever presidential election on December 24, 2021. However, recent events suggest that the nation may not be prepared for such a monumental step. The absence of a constitutional framework to define presidential powers and the ongoing presence of local armed groups and foreign mercenaries raise significant concerns about the security and integrity of the electoral process. Many Libyans fear that the approach of the election date may trigger violence and further instability.
Amid these uncertainties, the Atlantic Council’s North Africa Initiative hosted a panel discussion titled “Libya: The Long Road to Elections” on December 17, 2021. This event aimed to dissect the challenges and failures threatening the established election timeline. Moderated by Karim Mezran, the discussion featured insights from several experts, including Emadeddin Badi, Benjamin Fishman, Mary Fitzgerald, and Roberta Maggi, who collectively addressed the precarious state of Libya’s political landscape.
Security Threats and International Influence
A key point raised during the discussion was the military escalation in Tripoli, where armed militias surrounded the headquarters of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah for hours. Emadeddin Badi criticized the political elite for fueling the security crisis, suggesting that they benefit from the ongoing chaos. He expressed concern that these elites might attempt to replace the current Government of National Unity (GNU), undermining the broader political agreement supported by the international community.
Badi outlined three possible scenarios for Libya’s political future: the postponement of presidential elections, a potential replacement of the GNU, or a power-sharing arrangement between Dbeibah and the eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar. However, each scenario presents its own set of complications and risks, especially concerning potential run-offs that could include controversial figures like Saif al-Islam Gaddafi.
Public Sentiment and Electoral Participation
Despite the looming uncertainties, the Libyan populace has shown an eagerness to engage in the electoral process. Mary Fitzgerald highlighted that while only 600,000 Libyans voted in the 2014 parliamentary elections, around 2.4 million have registered to vote for the upcoming elections. This surge in voter registration reflects a desire for democratic progress, though Fitzgerald cautioned that motivations may vary—from support for candidates to a desire for change against the status quo.
The situation is further complicated by political polarization and the passage of illegitimate electoral laws. Fitzgerald emphasized that the international community’s acceptance of these laws has only exacerbated tensions and mistrust among the populace.
The Role of International Actors
Benjamin Fishman underscored the complicity of international actors in delaying the electoral process. He pointed to failures by the UN Special Envoy for Libya, Jan Kubis, especially regarding the controversial electoral laws accepted without sufficient scrutiny. International endorsement of these laws, despite their lack of legitimacy, has raised questions about the integrity of the electoral framework.
Fishman also criticized the failure to foster meaningful negotiations among Libyan factions, which has stalled the previously agreed roadmap to elections. This situation has made the upcoming elections not just a domestic issue but a concern for international stakeholders.
The Need for Security Sector Reform
Roberta Maggi highlighted the pressing need for security-sector reform in Libya. She argued that the absence of conducive security conditions hampers the possibility of fair elections. A holistic approach to security governance, which includes state-building measures, is essential for any hope of sustainable progress.
Maggi also pointed out that merely holding elections does not equate to effective governance or security. A comprehensive reconciliation process is necessary if the nation hopes to emerge from its fractured history and establish functioning political institutions.
Policy Recommendations
Panelists agreed that the December 24 election date is unlikely to be feasible, with a postponement appearing to be the most practical outcome. Badi noted a general sense of understanding among Libyans regarding a potential delay, provided it does not lead to increased tensions due to the influence of armed actors.
Fitzgerald stressed the need for a robust framework to guide the nation post-elections, advocating for balanced attention between electoral preparations and the implications of the results. If elections are postponed, addressing the public’s expectations will be crucial to avoid disenchantment with the democratic process.
Fishman emphasized the UN’s role in facilitating a transparent and realistic election timeline, ensuring international observers are involved. He highlighted the importance of maintaining stability before and after the elections through strategic U.S. involvement to mitigate the influence of disruptive spoilers.
Finally, Maggi reinforced the message that as Libya transitions through this critical phase, recalibrating international strategies to enhance security sector reform must remain a priority. A cohesive roadmap and commitment to true transition can help solidify Libya’s future in the democratic arena.
This landscape reveals a nation at a crossroads, with the potential for democratic progress tempered by security concerns and political intricacies. The upcoming elections, while anticipated, may need more foundational work to ensure they lead to lasting change rather than merely add to the challenges already faced.
