Erdogan’s Visit to Ethiopia: A New Era in Turkish-Ethiopian Relations
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to Ethiopia marks a significant milestone in the evolving dynamics of the Horn of Africa. Anadolu Agency has highlighted how this visit not only strengthens the historical ties between Türkiye and Ethiopia but also portrays Ankara’s growing influence in the region.
Historical Context: Turkey and Ethiopia’s Diplomatic Ties
Türkiye and Ethiopia share a long-standing diplomatic relationship, often deemed one of the oldest on the African continent. Diplomatic engagement began back in 1896 with Sultan Abdulhamid II and Emperor Menelik II. The establishment of a Turkish consulate in Harar in 1912 laid the groundwork for future collaboration. In 1926, Türkiye formalized its presence in Sub-Saharan Africa by inaugurating its first resident embassy in Addis Ababa, showcasing the significance of these ties.
Over the years, political exchanges were robust, with numerous correspondences between Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and Haile Selassie I further embedding the political dialogue. Notably, the “Ethiopia-Türkiye Treaty of Friendship and Commerce,” signed in 1936, laid strong legal foundations, reinforcing a bond that has persevered through various historical challenges.
Ethiopia’s Significance in the Global Landscape
Ethiopia’s geopolitical, economic, and demographic characteristics naturally enhance the bilateral relationship. As Africa’s most populous landlocked country with approximately 128.7 million residents, and a youthful median age of 19, Ethiopia is an emerging powerhouse. The country has maintained impressive economic growth, with GDP increasing by 7.2% in the 2023-2024 period, outpacing the continental average of 5%.
This burgeoning population and economic performance present a compelling case for Türkiye’s continued engagement. By 2020, Türkiye emerged as one of Ethiopia’s top three import partners, capturing a 5.7% market share. With over 150 Turkish companies investing approximately $2.5 billion, Türkiye holds the position of the second-largest foreign investor in Ethiopia.
Shifts in Trade Dynamics
Despite the longstanding economic ties, recent trends indicate a shift in Ethiopia’s foreign trade partnerships. In 2024, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) became the dominant player in Ethiopia’s trade landscape, reflecting a significant strategic pivot. This shift is exacerbated by Ethiopia’s reliance on foreign competitors like China, who leads Ethiopian imports with around $3 billion.
As Ethiopia reorients its foreign trade strategies toward the UAE and China, the implications of these changes could alter the nature of its ties with Türkiye. Such transformations necessitate swift and adaptive diplomatic approaches from Ankara to safeguard its interests in the region.
Ethiopia’s Pursuit of Maritime Access
A critical aspect of Ethiopia’s evolving geopolitical landscape is its quest for maritime access. With approximately 90% of its foreign trade passing through the port of Djibouti, Ethiopia seeks to diversify its access points. Notably, the nation has aimed to establish a strategic foothold in Somaliland, leveraging partnerships with the UAE to secure alternative maritime routes.
The UAE’s operation of the Berbera Port in Somaliland since 2017 symbolizes this ambition, as the route holds immense strategic value in the global trade network. The Bab al-Mandab Strait serves as a vital corridor for international trade, highlighting Ethiopia’s pressing need to escape its “geographical prison.”
Turkish Engagement in Regional Dynamics
One notable development stemming from Ethiopia’s aspirations is the “Ethiopia-Somaliland Protocol,” signed in January 2024. This memorandum proposed granting Ethiopia’s Navy significant maritime access in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty. This move not only challenges Somalia’s territorial integrity but also ignites regional tensions.
In response, Türkiye has initiated a mediation process aimed at fostering dialogue and understanding among the conflicting parties. The signing of the “Ethiopia-Somalia Ankara Declaration” in December 2024 exemplifies Ankara’s commitment to maintaining stability in the region amidst shifting alliances.
Navigating a Complicated Landscape
Ethiopia has faced internal strife, notably the Tigray War and ongoing tensions in various regions, highlighting the urgent need for stability. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s acknowledgment that a nation of 130 million cannot reside in a “geographical prison” underscores the urgency of establishing maritime access not just for economic growth, but as a crucial strategic objective.
Ankara emphasizes that successful navigation of these geopolitical waters requires consensus rather than unilateral actions. President Erdogan’s visit to Ethiopia, therefore, is pivotal in an era where regional politics are being redefined, offering a chance to forge a deep strategic partnership.
Opportunities for Cooperation
The potential for cooperation between Türkiye and Ethiopia is immense, particularly in defense, infrastructure, and commercial investments across the Horn of Africa. As these partnerships crystallize, they could exert significant influence over regional conflicts, including issues in Somalia, tensions with Egypt, and responses to Israel’s regional strategies.
In this context, Erdogan’s visit signals Ankara’s intent to play a crucial role in promoting stability and collaborative growth in the region, reaffirming Türkiye’s historical ties while addressing contemporary challenges head-on.
Through this continued engagement, Türkiye and Ethiopia may unlock a future rich with opportunities, fostering an alliance that could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa.
