The Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer has highlighted a noteworthy improvement in intra-African trade, a positive development amid a daunting trade deficit projected to reach approximately 39 billion US dollars by 2025. This balance reflects a broader narrative about the continent’s trading dynamics, where raw materials are exported at low value while more expensive manufactured goods are imported. This disparity forms a critical area of concern that the continent must address to maximize its economic potential.
According to the barometer, which aggregates trade data from ten key markets across Africa—including Angola, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa—the positive trend in intra-Africa trade can be attributed to advancements in infrastructure projects. This recent report marks the first instance since the barometer’s inception where all elements in the infrastructure category have shown improvement, signaling a collective effort to enhance trade facilitation across the continent.
However, amid the optimistic trade indicators, concerns linger about the continent’s commodity export structure. Andrew Mashanda, the Africa regions and offshore business and commercial head at Standard Bank, has pointed out that the continent’s reliance on exporting raw materials represents a significant structural challenge. He emphasizes that while Africa is endowed with abundant natural resources, the focus remains on low-value exports, which, in turn, drives a dependency on importing higher-value manufactured goods.
Despite these challenges, the barometer reveals that business confidence has surged, reaching 65 index points in 2025. This boost is fueled by a prevailing optimism among firms about stronger turnover and more stable economic conditions. Nonetheless, concerns about climate-related pressures remain a pressing issue that could impact trade and economic stability moving forward.
Philip Myburgh, trade, business, and commercial head at Standard Bank, notes that this edition of the Africa Trade Barometer is the fifth since its launch in 2022, emphasizing the continuous progress witnessed in key areas critical for trade growth. He highlights that perceptions among businesses are increasingly favorable regarding government support for trade initiatives and improvements in infrastructure. These perceptions are vital, considering that a robust infrastructure network serves as a key enabler of trade.
As Myburgh elaborates, strides have been made across various infrastructure sectors—road, rail, air, and waterways—all of which are integral to facilitating smoother trade flows. Enhanced infrastructure serves not just as a foundation for trade but also as a catalyst for regional integration, promoting better connectivity and fostering economic collaboration among African nations.
Looking ahead, the ongoing reshaping of Africa through integration and infrastructure improvements signals a promising trajectory for the continent. However, the geopolitical landscape, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East, introduces potential volatility around energy prices and supply chains, which may ultimately affect trade costs. This multifaceted interplay between trade dynamics, infrastructure development, and geopolitical factors underscores the complexity of navigating economic growth in Africa.
