Rethinking U.S. Policy in the Sahel: Four Key Assumptions

In the landscape of global geopolitics, the Sahel region presents a complex interplay of security challenges and shifting alliances. Recently, significant changes have unfolded, culminating in a reassessment of U.S. policy in the area. The departure of French troops from Chad, a nation where France held a strategic military presence for decades, marks a pivotal moment that underscores the evolving geopolitical space in the Sahel.

A Shift in Regional Dynamics

The withdrawal of French forces from Chad, finalized in January 2024, signals a broader transformation in the Sahel. Over the past five years, military juntas have taken control in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, resulting in the exit of thousands of Western troops. This departure includes not only French forces but also those from the United States and the European Union, who previously conducted operations aimed at capacity building and counterterrorism.

This paradigm shift has been exacerbated by the rise of Russian paramilitaries, particularly as former allies in the region have distanced themselves from Western support systems. With the collapse of collaborative efforts like the G5 Sahel Joint Force, instability has become an undeniable reality, making it necessary for the U.S. to reassess its strategies in the region.

Outdated Assumptions, New Realities

At the core of U.S. policy in the Sahel are four key assumptions that need urgent reevaluation if Washington is to remain relevant and effectively assist in stabilizing this volatile region.

1. The Role of Western Allies

Historically, U.S. policy has hinged on the belief that Western allies could fulfill regional security objectives. For years, the U.S. military supported operations such as Operation Juniper Micron, which relied on a partnership with French forces in Mali. However, this reliance on allies overlooked the complex perceptions of foreign involvement in the Sahel. Many local populations view former colonial powers with skepticism, a sentiment that the U.S. must consider. The assumption that Western support equates to strategic gains has faltered, especially as attitudes toward traditional allies like France shift negatively.

When French troops were expelled from Niger’s territory, the U.S. faced an urgent dilemma about its own military presence in the country. The withdrawal of Western forces has left the region vulnerable, with Mali now ranking as one of the most terrorism-impacted nations globally.

2. The “Outside-In” Approach

Another prevailing assumption is that investments aimed at strengthening coastal states will prevent instability from spilling over into coastal West Africa. This “outside-in” strategy proposes that by fortifying defense and governance in countries like Benin and Togo, the U.S. can insulate itself from the impacts of Sahelian turmoil. However, the rising violence in the Sahel—marked by record-breaking deaths in recent years—indicates a direct correlation with growing threats in surrounding coastal nations. Terrorist organizations, particularly those linked to al-Qaeda, are already establishing footholds, challenging the premise that simply addressing peripheral regions can suffice.

3. Decision-Making Based on Consequences

A critical assumption is the belief that Sahelian states would choose to eschew partnerships with U.S. adversaries, should they be aware of the possible repercussions. Messaging from U.S. officials has emphasized the ineffectiveness of Russian support, but the reality on the ground suggests otherwise. Countries like Mali and Burkina Faso have disregarded these warnings and sought partnerships with Russia, compelled by immediate security needs amidst U.S. legal restrictions following military coups.

The choice for these countries reflects a rational response to regional insecurities. Their leadership recognizes that, even with knowledge of potential consequences, the urgency of their security dilemmas often outweighs external discouragement from the U.S.

4. The Importance of Strategic Footprints

The loss of operational bases in Chad and Niger is another pivotal aspect of U.S. policy wrangling. Without these forward-deployed positions, the U.S. ability to monitor threats to its interests and citizens deteriorates significantly. Military leaders like General Michael Langley have underscored the importance of maintaining proximity to these threats, advocating for sustained engagement to effectively combat the evolving security landscape.

While closing bases presents challenges, alternative strategies may emerge, permitting the U.S. to distribute security assistance across the region and maintain critical partnerships.

Adapting to a New Landscape

The complexities of U.S. engagement in the Sahel require a recalibrated approach to address the region’s dynamic environment. Legal constraints on assistance following coups pose challenges, but they also direct focus toward innovative strategies. Nonlethal support, such as logistical aid and training programs, can help address immediate security needs while promoting long-term stability.

Moreover, investments must not solely prioritize coastal nations but acknowledge the interconnectedness of the Sahel and West Africa. Understanding these multifaceted relationships allows for a more comprehensive strategy that enhances regional stability.

Conclusion

As the Sahel continues to grapple with profound shifts in governance and security, the United States faces a critical juncture. By challenging long-held assumptions and remaining adaptable in its policy approach, the U.S. can significantly contribute to regional resilience and its own strategic interests. Enhanced engagement and nuanced understandings of the local context will be vital in navigating this tumultuous landscape.