By Ibrahim Mukhtar
Thursday March 5, 2026
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has been dramatically reshaped following the recent joint attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran. With the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and several senior security officials, Iran has retaliated fiercely, targeting not only Israel but also its Arab neighbors that host American military bases. This escalation includes attacks on the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan.
At the same time, Iranian-backed Hezbollah has launched strikes against Israel, leading to the latter’s airstrikes on Lebanese cities. Amid ongoing negotiations led by Oman, the rationale for the U.S. military actions has transformed from a bid for regime change in Iran to ensuring preemptive operations if Iran were to target American interests post-Israel’s attack.
Global concerns are mounting regarding the conflict’s potential to disrupt the economy and security, particularly with rising oil prices and fears surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passage responsible for transporting one-fifth of the world’s oil. Shipping through the strait has reportedly declined by at least 80%, and Qatar has halted its liquefied natural gas production in the wake of Iranian strikes.
In light of this escalating conflict, it’s essential to consider the possible ramifications for the security dynamics in the Horn of Africa.
Djibouti’s Neutrality Policy
Djibouti, home to the only permanent U.S. military base in Africa—Camp Lemonnier, remains an intriguing focal point. Despite the threats emanating from Iran, it has not yet faced attacks, which is noteworthy given Iran’s aggressive regional posture. Djibouti has maintained a strong pro-Palestinian stance, particularly since the war on Gaza erupted in 2023.
When Houthi militants from Yemen targeted vessels in the Red Sea, Djibouti rejected U.S. requests to launch counter-operations from its base, expressing a desire not to be drawn into the conflict. Djibouti’s Prime Minister articulated this sentiment, stating that they wished to avoid becoming embroiled in a war.
Additionally, the presence of foreign military bases from countries like China, France, Japan, and Italy in Djibouti adds a layer of complexity. An attack on U.S. forces could inadvertently threaten these other installations, possibly deterring any Iranian aggression towards Djibouti—especially considering Iran’s strategic alliances with the Houthis.
The conflict may significantly influence security in Somalia. The presence of Israeli interests in northern Somalia and the ongoing battle against al-Shabaab—an insurgent group that has been strengthening ties with Iranian-supported Houthis—warrants careful attention as the war unfolds.
The Houthi Factor
The Houthis have emerged as a formidable player in the Horn of Africa’s security landscape. As reported by the United Nations, this Iranian-backed group has developed operational connections with al-Shabaab, incorporating intelligence exchanges and the transfer of weaponry, including advanced drone technology. Attacks affiliated with the Houthis reflect their alignment with Iran’s anti-Israeli activities, often aimed at reinforcing regional solidarity.
If they respond to the current U.S.-Israeli conflict, it may lead to increased missile strikes against Israel or disruptions in pivotal shipping lanes in the Red Sea. However, orchestrated attacks on U.S. interests seem unlikely at this juncture, particularly as the Houthis continue peace negotiations with Saudi Arabia. This strategic pacing allows Iran to maximize its influence without prematurely risking confrontation that could draw in Western powers.
Breakaway Somaliland
The dynamics surrounding the recent recognition of Somaliland by Israel add another layer to the region’s complexities. This recognition seems aimed at facilitating Israeli operations in the Red Sea and potentially countering Houthi positioning in Yemen.
Some factions in Washington have advocated relocating the U.S. military base from Djibouti to Somaliland, citing the latter’s perceived flexibility in countering the Houthi threat. However, Houthi leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi has issued stern warnings, suggesting any establishment of an Israeli military presence in Somaliland would be met with military responses.
This backdrop raises questions about Israel’s next steps—whether it will push to establish a military base in Somaliland or seek alternative security arrangements. Somalia’s diplomatic channels must remain proactive in ensuring the recognition of Somaliland doesn’t gain traction under the guise of countering threats.
The Gulf Role
The Horn of Africa has recently become a battleground for Middle Eastern rivalries, especially between the Saudi-led coalition and the UAE. Their fraying relationship is exemplified by differing approaches toward militia groups and issues such as Israeli recognition of Somaliland.
While the growing Iranian threat may provide an impetus for Gulf states to mend ties and consolidate efforts, the realpolitik of their relationships means that cooperation against Iran is unlikely to translate into a unified policy. The competition between these powers continues to shadow their collective security efforts in the region.
Thus, while the Horn of Africa has managed to sidestep immediate repercussions from missile assaults, the ongoing war involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S. is poised to redefine security paradigms throughout the region. The strategic ramifications will be far-reaching, necessitating vigilance from Horn countries as they navigate this tumultuous landscape.
Ibrahim Mukhtar, Researcher specializing in Horn of Africa Regional Security
