The Current Geopolitical Landscape of the Horn of Africa

Setting the Stage: The 39th AU Assembly

Addis Abeba played host to the 39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union (AU) from February 11 to 15, 2026. This year’s summit came at a crucial juncture for the continent, where developmental aspirations collided with the strains of a fracturing global order. The summit’s theme, “Water as a Vital Resource for Life, Development, and Sustainability,” aimed to set the agenda for addressing water issues while also promoting the ‘Africa Water Vision 2063.’ Yet, the proceedings were overshadowed by the urgent matters of geopolitical instability, including the ongoing crises in Gaza and Sudan, which were forcefully brought to light by AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf.

A Context of Existential Crisis

This notion of an existential crisis extends beyond the African continent; it resonates globally. Charles Kupchan, an influential scholar, describes what he terms the “Coming Global Turn,” a redistribution of power where no single state or political ideology remains dominant in the multipolar world. The Horn of Africa, once divided by European colonialism, is now a battleground for various global and regional powers, all pursuing renewed strategic interests. This shift heightens the competition for influence over vital maritime resources, bases, and political alliances.

Regional Security Complex: Neo-Colonialism Meets Neo-Realism

Understanding the contemporary scramble for the Horn of Africa requires a nuanced approach, combining theories of Neo-realism, Regional Security Complex Theory, and Multiple Modernities. Neo-realism posits that state behavior is largely driven by an anarchic international system, where security and access to strategic maritime corridors are paramount. The engagement of Middle Eastern powers highlights this dynamic; rather than seeing the Red Sea as a barrier, they treat it as a conduit for expanding influence.

In his book “No One’s World,” Kupchan argues that the fading dominance of the West is ushering in a new era where emerging powers do not conform to Western-led paradigms. The varied governance models seen in autocrats from the Persian Gulf to strongmen in Africa underline a growing political and ideological diversity on a global scale.

Deep Contestations in the Liberal International Order

Antje Wiener’s concept of “Deep Contestations” sheds light on the challenges facing the Liberal International Order (LIO), revealing substantial disagreements over foundational norms. The territorial integrity that has long defined the post-Cold War era is under threat, notably following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in late 2025. This action has eroded longstanding international consensus regarding Somalia’s sovereignty and illustrates that realpolitik often favors strategic alliances over legal norms.

The perceived failure of international law to address disputes, such as the Nile water conflict or the situation in Sudan, prompts African states to explore alternatives within frameworks like BRICS. This emerging paradigm signifies a rejection of Western strategies characterized by “intrusiveness without inclusiveness.”

The Horn of Africa: A Complex Cauldron

The Horn of Africa comprises Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia, while also extending to Sudan, South Sudan, and Kenya in strategic discussions. The Horn’s geographical position along critical maritime routes enhances its geopolitical importance, dominating the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a vital point for international trade. Despite its potential, the region is ironically termed a “cauldron of contradictions,” where local vulnerabilities fuel external ambitions.

Demographically, the Horn is undergoing significant changes. Ethiopia’s population is expected to surpass 150 million by 2030, creating a pressing need for resources and employment. This youthful demographic is both a potential growth engine and a source of domestic pressure, often driving leaders to adopt aggressive foreign strategies.

Environmental challenges further augment these complexities. Prolonged droughts, particularly in Somalia and southern Ethiopia, have left millions reliant on humanitarian aid. These climate-induced crises intensify geopolitical tensions by aggravating resource scarcity and compounding local conflicts.

A Fragile State Spectrum

The Horn’s political landscape is marked by a fragile state spectrum where governance collapses and geopolitical tensions interlink. Countries like Somalia continue to experience dysfunctional governance, while more militarized regimes, such as Eritrea, add layers of complexity. Ethnic groups with cross-border affiliations exacerbate domestic insecurities, ensuring that crises in one country reverberate throughout the region.

Moreover, the Horn serves as a strategic battleground where state actors vie for influence over crucial navigation routes. Djibouti, for instance, has become a focal point, hosting military bases from several foreign powers, including the U.S., China, and France. This situation exemplifies the fragmented security dynamics in the region that inhibit the formation of a coherent collective security framework.

Historical Legacies and Ethiopia’s Quest for Sea Access

The colonial legacies of the late 19th century continue to shape the current geopolitical environment. Historical treaties like the 1884 Hewett Treaty and the 1900 Italo-Ethiopian Agreement showcase the injustices that severed Ethiopia’s historical ties to the Red Sea. While Ethiopia once presented a significant challenge to colonial ambitions, subsequent events, including Eritrea’s independence, left it landlocked in 1993, limiting its strategic maneuverability.

The erosion of federal arrangements meant to resolve Ethiopia’s maritime access needs has only deepened national dilemmas. The devastation wrought during the Cold War as superpowers influenced regional dynamics still impacts the Horn’s geopolitical calculus today.

Assab: From Division to Opportunity

Ethiopia’s need for reliable maritime access, notably through Assab, is critical for its national growth and economic viability. Ethiopia’s historical experience with acquisition of Assab demonstrated that peaceful and cooperative access was feasible. Thus, the quest for sea access must be approached with an emphasis on legality and international norms rather than military posturing.

Innovative legal frameworks, such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), could offer pathways for mutually beneficial arrangements. Potential initiatives like a jointly administered Special Economic and Logistics Zone could transform Assab into a site of convergence, focusing on collaborative economic development instead of division.

Middle East Influences: Gulf Rivalries and Proxy Conflicts

The instability of the Middle East has had pronounced effects on the Horn of Africa, turning it into a testing ground for competing geopolitical models. The recognition of Somaliland by Israel marked a critical shift, as Israel seeks to establish strategic footholds while addressing regional security concerns, particularly with Iranian-linked groups such as the Houthis in Yemen.

Rivalries, especially between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have intensified this geopolitical theatre. Forces from both sides engage in a struggle for influence, often using local actors as proxies. The ensuing ‘Sudanization’ risks compromise national integrity, as local factions thus become increasingly dependent on external patrons for resources.

China’s Evolving Role: Soft and Hard Power

China’s growing involvement in the Horn is characterized by a blend of soft power through infrastructure development and hard power through security partnerships. With a prominent military presence in Djibouti and significant investments in the region, China seeks to secure its interests while maintaining a low-profile military footprint.

However, Beijing faces challenges within this dynamic. Its strategic interests in Sudan, particularly regarding energy security, create a complex web of dependencies and obligations that critics often interpret as neo-colonialism.

India’s Emerging Influence: Navigating the Western Dilemma

India, through its BRICS membership and strategic engagements, is emerging as an alternative force within the geopolitical landscape of the Horn. By reinforcing partnerships centered on non-colonial security and infrastructure development, India offers different avenues for collaboration and regional stability.

Ethiopia’s accession to BRICS highlights the need for a delicate balancing act, navigating western influences while fostering ties with emerging economies. However, this approach comes with risks; dependence on traditional powers for debt restructuring may undermine Addis Ababa’s budding autonomy.

Ultimately, the future of the Horn of Africa hinges on its ability to find a pathway through this layered and multifaceted geopolitical landscape, striving for local developmental goals while managing external influences. Only through a concerted effort to forge integrated security frameworks can the Horn transcend its historical struggles and aspire to become a resilient and autonomous global player.