April 10, 2024
A diplomatic solution in Sudan demands greater US engagement with its Arab allies
The civil war in Sudan, ignited in April 2023, has spiraled into a humanitarian crisis of alarming proportions. The power struggle between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has compounded the suffering of civilians. Over thirteen thousand lives lost and 10.7 million displaced illuminate the urgency for international intervention, yet as of now, prospects for a resolution appear bleak.
Current conditions are exacerbated by brutal tactics from both factions. The RSF’s operations are marred by accusations of ethnic cleansing and widespread sexual violence, particularly against the Masalit tribe in Darfur, while the SAF has engaged in indiscriminate bombing campaigns against civilian populations. Despite various peace initiatives, international responses have been insufficient, revealing the complexities and obstacles to achieving a sustainable peace.
A fertile ground for foreign meddling
The Sudanese conflict is not solely an internal affair; it has become a battleground for external powers. With both generals eyeing power, their reliance on foreign allies has complicated the already tense dynamics. Burhan positions himself as the legitimate ruler supported by Egypt, while Hemedti has the backing of the United Arab Emirates. Each country’s interests in Sudan have led to competing agendas, perpetuating the cycle of violence.
Egyptian President Fattah el-Sisi views Burhan as a key ally, particularly concerning the management of the Nile River’s resources. While Egypt has participated in mediation efforts, it has simultaneously provided military support to the SAF, equipping them with drones and warplanes. On the other hand, the UAE has funneled financial and military assistance to the RSF while masquerading as a humanitarian benefactor. This duplicity severely undermines genuine peace efforts.
Saudi Arabia finds itself in a similar position, ostensibly supporting Burhan while attempting to position itself as a neutral mediator. This ambiguity may serve its interests better in the quest for regional dominance, especially as it competes with the UAE for influence over Sudan.
The presence of independent militias further complicates the situation. The lack of a unified command among opposing forces allows foreign players to exploit these groups for their purposes, exacerbating the chaos.
US response and course correction
Even with a range of diplomatic initiatives underway, meaningful progress toward peace in Sudan remains elusive. Ceasefire agreements have frequently been violated by both factions, leading to a tragic escalation of civilian casualties. The international community, including the United States, faces increasing pressure to facilitate a ceasefire, yet calls for peace, particularly during key moments like Ramadan, have largely gone unheeded.
US Special Envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello’s recent visits to regional stakeholders highlight the urgency for a coordinated international response. By aligning mediation efforts across different platforms—such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the African Union—the US can play a vital role in fostering inclusive discussions that engage a broader cross-section of Sudanese society, including resistance committees and civil society groups.
The forthcoming Jeddah talks represent an opportunity to unify the various diplomatic strands into a cohesive effort that could induce genuine pressure on both military factions. However, for these efforts to succeed, the US must prioritize Sudan in its foreign policy and provide Perriello with the necessary resources and authority to act decisively.
Some analysts suggest that deploying United Nations peacekeepers would provide stability and oversight as Sudan transitions to a civilian-led government. Such a mission could ensure humanitarian assistance flows while monitoring the country’s borders to prevent arms smuggling—crucial steps in preventing further violence.
Funding for humanitarian initiatives is also vital. Upcoming conferences, such as the one in France, could provide a pivotal moment to garner international backing for Sudan, addressing humanitarian needs while pushing for political solutions. However, the global community must hold accountable those entities that fund and arm the current combatants to truly break the cycle of violence.
As the specter of civil war looms over Sudan, addressing the root causes of external meddling will be crucial in shaping a peaceful and prosperous future for the nation. The world watches as the consequences of inaction could lead to broader instability in the region, underscoring the imperative for decisive and coordinated international intervention.
Manal Fatima is a program assistant with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Follow her on X: @mafasaad.
Further reading
Image: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah Al-Saud stands along with other officials as representatives of the Sudanese army and rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces sign an agreement for a seven-day ceasefire in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, May 20, 2023. Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS
